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Good morning. Nasdaq 26,973 and the S&P 500 7,580 capped a multi-day AI-led run as the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield eased to 4.451%. WTI $89.57 and Brent $92.92 held firm after a 3.3M-bbl EIA draw, while container and dry-bulk rates tightened (WCI ≈ $2,800/40ft; BDI ≈ 3,224). Policy gates steer today’s tape: reported H200 export clearances, a possible Hormuz reopening within ~1 month, and early-June freight surcharges connect equity, energy, and supply-chain costs.
Stocks and FX
26,973 on the Nasdaq and 7,580 on the S&P 500 into the June 1 open tracked a six-day decline in the 10Y UST to 4.451% (AP). USD/JPY printed 159.488 as AI- and semiconductor-led gains lifted multiples and risk appetite. Lower yields support growth-stock valuations and deal activity, while pressuring bank net interest margin; a strong dollar can tighten imported-margin math for U.S. retailers and device assemblers.
Commodities
WTI $89.57/bbl and Brent $92.92/bbl followed a 3.3M-bbl U.S. crude draw to 441.7M bbl (EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report). The near-term tightness sustains fuel and feedstock costs for Industrials and Materials and raises freight surcharges that feed into Retail and Electronics landed prices. Any confirmation of Middle East de-escalation could trim the risk premium quickly.
World Affairs
≈1 month is the indicated timetable for a Strait of Hormuz reopening under a reported draft framework (StreetInsider republishing Reuters). With Brent at $92.92 and WTI at $89.57, headline risk around ceasefire extensions drives crude and shipping premia. A credible reopening would ease Energy input uncertainty and reduce insurance and delay risk for Transport and Industrials.
Supply Chain
≈$2,800 per 40ft on Drewry’s World Container Index and a ~3,224 Baltic Dry Index print signal tightening into early-June surcharges (Daily Cargo News). Higher container and bulk rates lift landed costs and lengthen booking lead times for apparel, electronics, and chemicals, while supporting pricing for carriers and some freight-forwarders. Expect inventory planning to skew earlier with higher safety stock.
